Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 11.301336 12.947341 14.721099 16.771133 19.071553 21.569576 24.483749
2025-06-29 8.766964 10.970690 13.531296 16.712248 20.542548 24.989959 30.527629
2025-07-06 7.063559 9.373336 12.193788 15.865737 20.491453 26.094335 33.359902
2025-07-13 6.294383 8.788823 11.967905 16.275567 21.912769 28.986162 38.472210
2025-07-20 5.671441 8.280397 11.731734 16.572584 23.117413 31.579409 43.253604
2025-07-27 5.041461 7.677464 11.288871 16.519826 23.808351 33.494450 47.206716
2025-08-03 4.471642 7.086735 10.789561 16.316538 24.235620 35.029376 50.674869
2025-08-10 4.050084 6.661388 10.473501 16.323065 24.920910 36.912096 54.667795
2025-08-17 3.727775 6.348274 10.284325 16.480736 25.804825 39.085167 59.135348
2025-08-24 3.399490 5.990096 9.990962 16.447874 26.386555 40.830637 63.045897
2025-08-31 3.086363 5.623389 9.649359 16.305407 26.777033 42.293180 66.583978
2025-09-07 2.863201 5.382411 9.482367 16.413635 27.539725 44.320358 71.018524
2025-09-14 2.724701 5.277980 9.534897 16.885726 28.911780 47.354853 77.145810
2025-09-21 2.477167 4.958432 9.205447 16.709496 29.240262 48.804203 80.921172
2025-09-28 2.150718 4.461582 8.531296 15.902293 28.484171 48.506417 81.945762
2025-10-05 2.051356 4.376949 8.565216 16.298863 29.726708 51.412660 88.113130
2025-10-12 1.945930 4.269792 8.548627 16.601293 30.818791 54.113304 94.047538
2025-10-19 1.799302 4.066879 8.340813 16.546688 31.290282 55.812170 98.417071
2025-10-26 1.646929 3.836752 8.063273 16.343720 31.485294 57.050725 102.066389
2025-11-02 1.534327 3.677449 7.906755 16.350040 32.043236 58.910675 106.804709
2025-11-09 1.448657 3.566733 7.835060 16.508020 32.875623 61.262433 112.446305
2025-11-16 1.348889 3.415151 7.670271 16.475083 33.353326 63.015363 117.125090
2025-11-23 1.246228 3.246456 7.457327 16.332415 33.615505 64.394964 121.201636